The San Diego Union-Tribune’s panel of economists and business leaders reflect on the past year and share what they’re grateful for this year.

Question: What are you most thankful for, economically, this Thanksgiving?

Economists

Caroline Freund, University of California-San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy

Innovative economy: I am thankful that the U.S. economy remains the strongest and most innovative in the world. Despite the COVID shock, global conflicts and domestic polarization, the economy is growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is under control. The U.S. is leading in new technologies, such as AI and biotechnology, which will boost productivity and advance health care. But we can’t do it alone, and must continue to work with our allies and partners for a better future.

Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Institute for Economic Research

Recognizing “it’s the economy, stupid”: What matters most in politics is the economy, which remained the top issue for voters nationwide according to exit polls. Negative views on the economy seems to have overridden bad feelings about Trump, while Harris was unable to convince voters her economic plan was different from Biden’s, which frustrated most voters. Lower rates of inflation do not mean prices are coming down but just rising more slowly. What really hurts consumers is higher compounding prices.

James Hamilton, University of California-San Diego

Soft landing: It’s hard for the Fed to bring inflation down without causing a recession. Many analysts were predicting a recession for 2024, and some were even saying that a recession had already started. But we’re almost through the year now and the unemployment rate remains quite low by historical standards. To be sure, there are real concerns about the economic policies and geopolitical conflicts that the new year may bring. But, right now, we have prosperity and peace.

Norm Miller, University of San Diego

Freedom, civility and capitalism: I recently finished reading “Patriot” by Alexi Navalny, which details the ruthlessness and corruption of autocrats like Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un and many leaders in Africa. Corruption at all levels of government inevitably undermines the benefits of free markets and diminishes the wealth of any afflicted nation. While our country is not without its flaws, and some government agencies and police actions are not always just, we are still far better off than much of the world.

David Ely, San Diego State University

Lower inflation rate: The rate of inflation has declined significantly since 2022 and is now approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. While prices remain well above pre-COVID levels, the stress and uncertainty created by rapidly escalating prices has diminished. The central bank was sufficiently comfortable with inflation and other economic data to begin lowering its target interest rate in September. Additional cuts to its target interest rate over the next year are likely.

Executives

Phil Blair, Manpower

Jobs: Jobs are available for whomever wants one. The San Diego economy, while not flourishing, is still able to support anyone anxious to work at a fair and reasonable pay rate.

Gary London, London Moeder Advisors

Prosperity: Notwithstanding a brutal national election, razor close and with an outcome that is highly unsettling to many, ours remains a nation of unquestionable prosperity. The key challenge over the months and years ahead is whether our “lived” economy can match the healthy metrics of lowered inflation, low unemployment and GDP growth, among others. I think time will cure the current economic angst, unless we meddle too much with things like tariffs and mass deportations.

Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates

San Diego’s well-rounded economy: San Diego’s economy is robust and diverse, with vital sectors in biotechnology, health care, military, tourism and telecommunications. It is also a hotspot for innovation and startups, particularly in the biosciences. Tourism is a significant economic driver, supporting many local businesses, including ours. Add in the military, education, sports, weather, quality of life, and voila. The icing on the cake is having my family here.

Austin Neudecker, Weave Growth

Economic foundations: I am thankful we currently live in a country with eager entrepreneurs, abundant risk-taking investors, a booming public market, historically low unemployment, and stable laws where most people have the opportunity to thrive. Frankly, I am quite concerned about how the coming chapter may impact these norms. I expect several extreme policies to have an uneven impact on industries, international trade, the protections and availability of labor, inflation, social programs and consumer confidence.

Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health

Health care: I’m grateful for great health care in San Diego and the enormous economic value and community benefit provided by the many health care organizations, hospitals and tens of thousands of physicians, nurses, technicians and support teams providing care to our communities. We often take health care for granted, but please don’t. Many health care organizations are at risk and face shortages of physicians and other providers. Additionally, violence against health care workers is rising. I’m thankful for these heroes every day.

Jamie Moraga, Franklin Revere

A resilient U.S. economy: In a presidential election year, uncertainty and volatility can cloud the market and raise fear in investors. Despite this, we have seen low unemployment, improved consumer confidence, continued economic growth and lowered inflation. The market’s performance this year has reflected an underlying economic strength and optimism. Investors were also relieved to see a quick and decisive election outcome.

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