Hurricane center says 90% chance tropical system will form, forecasts show swing back to Florida

ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center expects the season’s next tropical depression or storm to form in the Caribbean soon, and forecast models predict it will intensify into a hurricane and threaten Florida next week.

As of the NHC’s 7 a.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea was producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of dayswhile the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea,” forecasters said. “Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend.”

The system, whether it develops or not, is expected to dump rain on Jamaica and then turn slowly to the northwest by early next week as it moves into the western Caribbean and approaches Central America. It’s then forecast to move toward Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula approaching the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC gives it a 90% chance to develop in the next two to seven days, and it could become Tropical Storm Sara.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is slated to investigate this system later Wednesday.

It officially became Invest 99-L on Tuesday prompting the spate of long-term forecast models into action that look beyond seven days. The majority of those show it could intensify to hurricane strength and make its way to Florida by the middle of next week.

The models’ intensity range as of Wednesday morning varies with some expecting it to approach major hurricane strength as it approaches the Florida peninsula.

Several of the model paths range from the Big Bend area down to South Florida nearing the coast Tuesday and making landfall on Wednesday.

The NHC won’t begin forecasting a projected path until it becomes at least a tropical depression, and then will only forecast out five days.

If it does turn and strike Florida, it could become the fourth named storm to hit the state’s Gulf Coast this hurricane season following hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 17 named storms so far, 11 of which became hurricanes, with five of those growing into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or stronger.

The season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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