Dear Mr. Trump

I have maintained that, were it held today, you would win the election. Vice President Kamala Harris is just an extension of the deeply unpopular Biden-Harris administration. A majority of Americans do not like you, but they prefer your administration's policies. The electorate is angry and frustrated. An angry and frustrated electorate does not preserve the status quo, which is Harris.

The last few days, however, have made me rethink who would win. It is not just that your debate performance was not good. It is that ever since the assassination attempt, you have seemed both off your game and cloistered with friends detaching you from reality.

Your convention speech had neither rhyme nor reason. It went on too long, and people tuned out. Once President Joe Biden was out of the race, you seemed to lose your interest in the race. It is as if you wanted to beat Biden to prove you could beat him, but now you have nothing to prove. You secured your nomination and your leadership of the Republican Party. But now, frankly, if you do not win the presidency, the Democrats will probably cart you off to jail. So you need to win.

Despite a poor performance -- and before you say you had a great performance, remember that Biden has supporters who insist he beat you in that debate -- there is cause for hope from your debate. Harris left a bad impression with undecided voters. Those voters believe she beat you in the debate but also believe she is too tied to Biden, with no real message to pivot from high inflation, border crossings and crime.

The very first question in the debate was addressed to Harris: "Do you believe Americans are better off now than they were four years ago?" Harris said neither yes nor no. In fact, she did not answer the question, but she did acknowledge that people cannot afford homes or families. The Biden-Harris administration did that. Voters know it. You have an opportunity.

For the next 50 days, you should skip the national press. Go instead to Springfield, Ohio. Spend time with WHIO, the highly regarded TV station there. Forget the rumors of people eating pets. Just remind people that Harris has been on the job for over three and a half years and has not done anything she says she will do in the future. Talk about the high cost of groceries, and talk about the city being overwhelmed with immigrants. Highlight the issue.

Then hit the road. Go to middle American cities in swing states and spend time with the local news stations. Ignore Fox and CNN. Instead, spend time with the local press and citizens in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, or Cadillac, Michigan, or Altoona, Pennsylvania. Go to Las Vegas and Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and Tucson, Arizona, and Atlanta. Everywhere you go, start and end with where you ended the debate: Harris has been on the job for over three and a half years, and look at the economy, the border and crime.

When reporters inevitably do their jobs and ask you tough questions about 2020, you are not disciplined enough to avoid taking the bait. But you can still say, regardless of 2020, Harris is there now, and look at the economy, the border and crime.

Additionally, if you were wise, you would spend less time surrounding yourself with people like Laura Loomer and others who whisper to you that all is well. All is not well. The American people are still willing to give you a chance, but you are more interested in talking about the crazy things fed to you from the online world than the real-world things normal, undecided voters care about.

At this point, as has been true for some time, you will not pivot. You will not change who you are. But if you do not change your conduct, you will lose and go to prison. Your campaign is staffed well with competent people at the highest level. They are not the problem. Who you've surrounded yourself with and what you say is the problem. If you do not fix those things, you will lose, and a prison sentence looms.

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To find out more about Erick Erickson and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate webpage at www.creators.com.

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