Trump unwound environmental rules before. He's vowed to again in a second term

In his first term as president, Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate deal, weakened decades-old environmental protections and rolled back many regulations on polluting industries installed by his predecessor, former President Barack Obama.

Now, with Trump set to return to the White House, a similar fate may await many of President Joe Biden’s landmark policies. Only this time, experts say there’s reason to believe he could have more success.

“They don’t have the same learning curve they had the first time … ,” said Adam Orford, an assistant professor of environmental law at the University of Georgia.

Trump will also take over with a conservative majority cemented on the Supreme Court, which has already curbed the regulatory reach of federal agencies. Republicans also regained a Senate majority and have a shot to control the U.S. House of Representatives.

Still, there may be limits — both political and legal — to what a second Trump administration can accomplish.

Global climate change efforts

Trump has long denied climate change science and has called the man-made warming that is increasing the intensity of hurricanes and heat waves a “hoax.”

Trump is expected to back out of the Paris Agreement again and step away from other global efforts to cooperate on climate change.

The U.S. has emitted more greenhouse gases than any country in history and its withdrawal could blunt efforts to curb warming, just as the planet inches closer to temperature thresholds scientists have warned will lead to even more dangerous and severe weather.

Orford said the world needs America as a partner and “completely disengaging would be not fatal, but would certainly be a major setback for the international climate change response.”

EVs and clean energy

The Biden administration has tried to use both carrots and sticks to accelerate the country’s transition to clean energy and rein in climate change.

The Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s signature climate and health law, codified a raft of tax breaks to encourage manufacturers to build their electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries and more in the U.S. On the consumer side, the law offers tax credits for North American-made EVs, plus other clean energy technologies and appliances.

Trump has repeatedly attacked Democrats’ climate spending as a “scam” and has promised to undo it.

Direct spending tied to the law — like grants for clean energy research — could be altered or scaled back by executive orders, but doing away with the IRA’s tax credits and deductions would be a bigger lift, experts said.

Though not a single Republican in Congress voted for the IRA, GOP-led states — including Georgia — have been some of the biggest beneficiaries of the investments it spurred.

In recent years, Georgia has become a mecca of EV, battery and solar manufacturing, with companies like Hyundai Motor Group and Qcells building new factories. Even some supporters of Trump, including U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., have warned a full repeal could imperil the jobs those projects are set to create.

The U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service have some leeway in how they interpret tax law, but the credits themselves could not be undone without congressional action — something several experts deemed unlikely, even if Republicans retake both chambers.

“It’s not really the Republican brand to rescind tax cuts, even if they’re not necessarily the tax cuts that they themselves would have preferred,” said Dustin Stamper, who leads the tax legislative affairs practice at accounting firm Grant Thornton.

Environmental protections

The Biden administration has tightened limits on greenhouse gases from vehicles and power plants, which combined produce more than half the country’s annual emissions, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Biden’s EPA also finalized the first-ever drinking water standards for certain “forever chemicals,” which have been linked to cancers and other serious health problems.

Industry has pushed back and the rules could be in Trump’s crosshairs, Orford said.

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