Greg Cote's Week 12 NFL picks

I will never be happy with 8-6 straight-up, but the same numbers vs. the spread are in the acceptable range, at least. Nailed a pair of dogs-with-points on covers by the Bears and Steelers. Pretty much bull’s-eyed the Dolphins’ win (it was 34-19; I had 31-16). Missed a couple of games late and agonizingly (I hate you, Geno Smith). Also had an upset pick that made we wanna slap myself by imagining Dallas might actually win a home game. Oh well. Bit of a stumble last week but I still like the trajectory of our season after a very slow start. Now let’s get back on the hotfoot! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Steelers (8-2, -4) over @Browns (2-8), 24-13.]

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Week 11: 8-6, .571 overall; 8-6, .571 vs. spread.

Season: 107-59, .645 overall; 86-77-3, .528 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 12 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

RAVENS (7-4) at CHARGERS (7-3)

Line: BAL by 3.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 24-20.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC.

The Brother Bowl! The Harbaugh Bowl! The HarBowl! Longtime Ravens coach John Harbaugh and first-year Chargers coach Jim — the only siblings to face off as head coaches in NFL history — meet for the third time but first time in 12 seasons on Monday Night Football. Big-bro John leads Kid Jim 2-0 from when the latter coached the 49ers in 2011-14, including 34-31 in the 2012-season Super Bowl. The rematch is a delicious one: John’s great Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry-led offense vs. Jim’s No. 1 scoring defense in the league. (Over/under on TV shots of Dad Jack up in a suite watching his two boys: 3 1/2.) Will this finally be Jim’s time to win? I say not yet, Kid. John’s Ravens just fell to another great defense in Pittsburgh and won’t let it happen again against a Bolts D limited by defensive injuries. Justin Herbert has been great at home (4-1, with seven TDs, zero picks) but asking him to outscore L-Jack is a big ask. HarBowl III to the Big Bro.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

49ERS (5-5) at PACKERS (7-4)

Line: GB by 2.

Cote’s pick: SF, 27-23.

TV: 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” cries the Upset Bird. “San Fraaawwwk!” Niners are mad at themselves for giving up that last-second score in loss to Seattle, and will bring that anger on this trip. Big factor: Injuries. San Fran expects to have TE George Kittle back, but as of Thursday 49ers’ top pass rusher Nick Bosa and Pack star CB Jaire Alexander both were iffy to play. Big Factor 2.0: Weather. Temps in low 40s to high 30s and cloudy. I have not ruled out a rise-up by underperforming San Fran, starting here. Let’s see if that faith is justified or just dumb. Gee Bees have not been invincible at Lambeau (3-2, and 13-9 the past three seasons), Niners have won past two meetings, and return of Kittle should help unlock Brock Purdy and the more desperate 49ers. “Big game from Purdy,” foretells U-Bird. “Braaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 12:

Thursday night pick was Steelers (8-2, -4) over @Browns (2-8), 24-13.

Vikings (8-2, -3 1/2) over @Bears (4-6), 19-17: All four Chicago wins have come at The Soldier, but Minnesota counters with a strong (4-1) record away from its home dome. Vikings also have won past four roadies in this NFC North rivalry. Vikes’ pass rush (third in league in sacks) should bother Caleb Williams, but hedge Bears-with-points in defensive struggle.

Lions (9-1, -7) over @Colts (5-6), 38-16: Detroit’s awesome top-ranked offense is on pace to roll up 571 points in 17 games. Can it make a run at Denver’s NFL record of 606 set in 2013 in 16 games? There are defenses out there to test the Motown machine, but Indy’s is not among them. Lions have rolled over three AFC South teams by a combined 130-49 and complete the sweep here.

Buccaneers (4-6, -6) over @Giants (2-8), 24-17: NYG off five straight losses (and 0-5 at home) benched Daniel Jones and hands the ball now to Tommy DeVito. (Would rather see 4-10 actor Danny DeVito from the Subway ads out there, but that’s just me.) Tampa is reeling on a four-game skid of its own but is still alive in weak NFC South as both teams come in off byes. Lean T-Bay to cover assuming WR Mike Evans returns from injury as expected, but Tommy D will bring enough emotional spark to make Big Blue-plus-6 tempting.

@Commanders (7-4, -10) over Cowboys (3-7), 27-18: Bet-line is this fat partly because the better team also has a notable rest/prep edge after Washington played last Thursday and Dallas went Monday night. Cowboys have won two straight and five of past six in this NFC East rivalry, but that script has flipped. Rivalry won’t allow a letdown by Comms, who also are aching to rebound from two straight L’s, and whose coach Dan Quinn was Dallas’ D-coordinator in 2021-23. ‘Boys have been decent away (3-2) and if Cooper Rush manages a clean sheet they should cover the big spread.

@Dolphins (4-6, -7 1/2) over Patriots (3-8), 27-17: Warning: This year’s Miami Dolphins — even surfing a two-game win streak — are not good enough to look past anybody and better not take lightly a down New England team on account of the short week ahead with a trip to play at Green Bay on deck Thanksgiving night. The risk of that will be there entering Sunday. Miami has beaten the rival Patriots three straight times and seven of the past eight including 15-10 in early October despite Tua Tagovailoa sidelined and Tyler Huntley pitching. Now Tua is back, playing well and 6-1 vs. this AFC East foe, and the Fins also have won the past four meetings in the 3-0-5. Miami flexed long drives and possession time in handling Las Vegas last week, and should be able to do the same against a Pats run defense that is average at best. (Miami whomped NE for 193 rush yards in that first meeting.) Pats are more wide-open on offense though since that first meeting, with new QB Drake Maye throwing 105 passes in past three games. That gives this the potential to bloom into an unexpected shootout, and to reveal the rookie Maye’s proneness to mistakes and picks. Dolphins should win to get within a game of .500 and draw playoff contention into view — but only if they’re giving the Pats their full attention and not already distracted by thoughts of Lambeau Field on a really cold Thursday night in Green Bay.

Chiefs (9-1, -10 1/2) over @Panthers (3-7), 34-10: Kansas City could face letdown after last week’s first loss in that big AFC showdown at Buffalo. And Carolina has won two straight and is home and coming off a bye. Hmm. Upset Bird anywhere overhead? No? No. Talent disparity is too great here, and Panthers’ 32-ranked scoring defense also is dead-last vs. the run.

@Texans (7-4, -7 1/2) over Titans (2-8), 24-16: Letdown factor again in play here as Houston comes home to face a weak-ish opponent following a big-stage win in Dallas Monday night. Competing trends: Tennessee’s past four losses have all been by 10-plus points, but six of past eight meetings in this AFC South rivalry have been one-score results. Houston hopes to have pass-rush beast Will Anderson back to further weaken Will Levis and his popgun Titans offense.

Broncos (6-5, -6) over @Raiders (2-8), 27-13: Vegas had won eight in a row in this AFC West bout before Denver won handily, 34-18, in October. Difference is Broncos QB Bo Nix, who is on a heater, has hoisted Denver into playoff chase, and has made it a two-horse rookie of the year race and closed on favorite Jayden Daniels. Raiders on a six-game skid. Make it seven.

@Seahawks (5-5, +1) over Cardinals (6-4), 24-23: Upset! OK, you’re right. Mini-upset! Arizona has won four in a row to surge to top of NFC West — the season’s most surprising division leader. And it is a balloon ready to burst, even with Cards coming off a bye and with Seattle only 2-4 at home. Seahawks are buoyed by Geno Smith’s heroics in a last-second upset of San Fran, and know how to beat ‘Zona with five straight wins in series.

Eagles (8-2, -2 1/2) @Rams (5-5), 30-23: Sunday night stage gets an NFC goodie as Eagles try to show they’re up to the Detroit challenge atop the conference and Rams strive to stay in hunt in wide-open West. Birds are 4-1 on road and better than LAR on both sides of ball, and on a long week after playing last Thursday. Philly has No. 2-ranked pass defense to limit Matthew Stafford, and like RB Saquon Barkley — highest non-QB in league MVP odds — to stay hot vs. middling L.A. run D.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.]

OFF THIS WEEK

— Bengals (4-7, next vs. Steelers): Cincy lost close at Chargers last week as long climb out of an 0-3 start continues with Joe Burrow’s MVP-caliber numbers thus far for naught.

— Bills (9-2, next vs. 49ers): Buffs sailing on six-game win streak after ripping the ‘unbeaten’ off Chiefs’ season.

— Falcons (6-5, next vs. Chargers): Just when you think Kirk Cousins has made Atlanta good, Falcons drop two straight including last week’s 38-6 stinker in Denver.

— Jaguars (2-9, next vs. Texans): The 52-6 embarrassment at Detroit was Jags’ fourth straight L. They hope to have QB Trevor Lawrence be back next week, at least.

— Jets (3-8, next vs. Seahawks): NYJ’s 28-27 loss to Indy was Planes’ fifth one-score loss — what losers say for consolation as The Great Aaron Rodgers Experiment fails by degrees.

— Saints (4-7, next vs. Rams): Two straight wins have followed a seven-game skid. So the men of N’Awins at least have the ‘No Quit’ sign up for interim coach Darren Rizzi.